Category: deficits and debt

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The Shock of Surplus

Rooting for Argentina and President Milei

The current president of Argentina is an avowed “anarcho-capitalist.” He isn’t really — but close enough for government work.

It’s more accurate to say that Javier Milei is a capitalist and libertarian. He has taken on the job of extricating the Argentinian economy from the mire of socialism and corruption — unleashing outlawed market processes.

He seeks to do it not by pushing for micro-changes around the edges of the margins of government spending and intrusions but by figuratively wielding the chainsaw that he literally wielded during his election campaign.

One sign of the success of his “shock therapy” cited by The New York Sun is the “first budget surplus in more than a decade.” A monthly surplus of almost $600 million is the first surplus since the summer of 2012.

But, the Sun quickly adds, Milei’s various radical proposals still face an uphill battle in the legislature. All those people who created the mire are still around.

There are hopeful signs. The lower chamber has already passed a preliminary or framework agreement to make various basic reforms. These include privatizing of currently state-operated companies, deregulation, and revamping of criminal and environmental laws.

The lawmakers “chose to end the privileges of the caste and the corporate republic, in favor of the people,” Milei says.

Meanwhile, though, egged on by unions, thousands of Argentinians have taken to the streets in a general strike to protest the reforms. Milei can win, but it won’t be easy.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES ON JAVIER MILEI

Milei Defends Capitalism
January 24, 2024

Market Rents Work in Argentina
January 23, 2024

Milei’s Chainsaw
January 6, 2024

To End the Great Declension
December 13, 2023

The Outsider Who Won
November 20, 2023

The Ultimate Outsider
October 24, 2023

Two Libertarians, North and South
September 19, 2023

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deficits and debt national politics & policies political economy

The Economy Is Great-ish

Joe Biden, economy, inflation, Bidenomics

“We have the highest share of working-age Americans in the workforce in 20 years,” Biden recently told reporters. “It’s no accident. It’s Bidenomics.”

Bidenomics being that old standby, tax-and-spend-omics.

So why do so many Americans think the economy is getting worse? Why do 84 percent say that their costs have gone up?

Well, says President Biden, the media mislead them. “You all are not the happiest people in the world [in] what you report,” is his view. “You get more legs when you’re reporting something that’s negative.”

The media do often mislead us; the negative news bias is real.

But I don’t think that our left-leaning, in-the-tank-for-Biden media can be blamed for the impression so many of us have that it’s harder to make ends meet.

Biden isn’t the only one professing puzzlement. Breitbart Business Digest observes that a “small army of establishment media types and economists” are intent on “unraveling what they take to be the great mysteries of our time.” As described by a recent Brookings Institution paper, this mystery is the “disconnect between consumer sentiment and the state of the macroeconomy.”

As BBD points out, the Brookings researchers simply start by assuming that everybody is wrong, then try to figure out why.

“A simpler explanation would be that the economy is falling short of the public’s expectations” because of things like high inflation, higher interest rates, and greater difficulty paying for groceries, Christmas presents, vacations. And rent, and medical bills, and tuition.

Saying it’s all in our heads won’t make tough times go away.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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Of Stopgaps and Ladders

budget, debt, Congress, shut down

“By law, we have one job,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) asserted the last time he opposed the “continuing resolution” (CR) on the federal budget. 

What is that “one job”? It is “to pass twelve appropriations bills and a budget. We aren’t doing that, which is why we are $33 trillion in debt.”

Katherine Mangu-Ward, at Reason, fleshed this out: “In theory, the president proposes a budget, Congress passes a budget resolution, and then various committees put together a dozen separate spending bills. They’re debated and voted on, and then the president signs them into law by October 1.”

The practice, however, is a bit different: “What happens instead is that the members of the House careen into each fall full tilt, screaming at each other until they throw together some kind of stopgap measure to fund the federal government for a little while longer until they can get their act together to generate a big, messy omnibus bill that no one will have time to read.”

But it’s worse: “When they can’t manage even that, we get a shutdown.”

To prevent a shutdown, but also not fall back into the usual iterations of the continuing resolutions, the new House Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R.-La.) has floated the idea of a “laddered” CR. According to The Epoch Times, this plan “would spread the due dates over a period of time rather than having all the bills come due at once.” Think of it as an ultra-weak echo of the responsible budgeting process.

Will it work? Will Congress manage this merest hint of responsibility?

In ten days, it’s go time — or, no-go time — again.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob. 

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deficits and debt election law tax policy

Slasher Needs Slashing

California Assembly, tax, taxes

A perennial bill in the California Assembly, Constitutional Amendment 1, would make it harder for voters to block local tax increases in accordance with the provisions of Proposition 13, which voters passed in 1978.

ACA 1 would shrink the percentage of voters who must approve certain tax increases from two thirds to 55 percent in cases where the money would purportedly be used for infrastructure or public housing.

Passage would further erode the legacy of Prop 13, which in addition to cutting taxes, limiting tax increases, and requiring a two-thirds legislative majority to increase state taxes, also imposed a two-thirds threshold for voter approval for special local taxes.

In 2000, voters accepted a lower threshold for approval of school bonds — 55 percent instead of two thirds — enabling billions more in property taxes.

That’s bad enough, but things could easily get worse.

Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association observes that if enacted, ACA 1 would be used to raise taxes repeatedly in local elections by dint of dubbing all government spending “infrastructure.” 

The infrastructure exemption is an innovation of the 2023 version of the bill (the tricky tricksters never stop).

Moreover, if passed, the amendment would take effect immediately. “Billions of dollars in tax hikes will start that much faster.”

Coupal stresses that the new exactions would be added to property tax bills “above and beyond Prop 13’s one percent cap” on property taxes.

ACA 1 keeps getting reintroduced and, so far, keeps getting killed off, like the mad killer in a teen slasher movie. Only to be revived for the sequel.

Kill it again.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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crime and punishment deficits and debt tax policy

Just Say NO to the IRS

taxes, Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Congress, audit, IRS

The IRS wants to do your tax returns. Should we let it?

On this question, the agency has stacked the deck in its favor by commissioning an “independent” review by a left-wing think tank, New America, already on record in support of giving IRS officials authority to do this.

Basically, the IRS handed $15 million (of taxpayer money) to New America to say “Yes, based on our very independent review, we agree with you and ourselves about thus expanding your power over taxpayers.”

Under the proposed IRS Direct File program — already being tested in a pilot program — taxpayers would use government software to let IRS crunch the tax numbers.

Mark Tapscott’s report for Epoch Times cites many objections to the scheme.

Among the most pertinent is voiced by David Williams, president of Taxpayers Protection Alliance. He notes that when individuals and private tax preparers fill out tax forms, they’re typically trying to keep the tax take to a minimum. But the IRS won’t have the same incentive to maximize deductions and refunds.

Moreover, “There is no reason to trust the IRS with even more sensitive financial information. . . .”

Participation in the IRS Direct File program would not be mandatory, at least not initially.

Once established, though, the program would make it easier to mandate participation for at least some categories of tax returns. 

And let us not pretend that such a development would be surprising. Governments tend to use precedents of newly granted power to expand that power.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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Deadbeat California

Gavin Newsom, California

The injustices pile up so thick and fast that one can’t really keep track. Some state governments are especially prolific in producing them. Governments like the Deadbeat State, formerly known as the Golden State.

Now businesses in California must pay the price for the state government’s profligacy during the pandemic, when it borrowed $20 billion from the federales to help pay unemployment benefits. California is refusing to repay.

In the budget proposal for 2023-2024, $750 million had originally been set aside to begin repaying this debt. But Governor Gavin Newsom killed the provision. So, in accordance with federal regulations, businesses must take up the slack. Starting in 2023, the unemployment tax rate that businesses will pay, which had been 0.6 percent, is being increased by 0.3 percent until the loan is repaid.

“California is just not really an employer-friendly state,” says Marc Joffe of the Cato Institute. “This one thing will not be a difference between a business remaining open or closing, but it’s just another burden on top of the many burdens the state puts on employers.”

A major contributor to the size of this debt is the state’s failure to act to prevent massive fraud in filings for unemployment benefits. LexisNexis estimates that fraudulent payments amount to more than $32 billion.

California taxpayers must pay for this unsalutary neglect one way or another. But what Newsom has done ends up penalizing businesses in particular. 

Yet another reason to avoid doing business in the state.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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