Tag: hyperinflation

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free trade & free markets too much government

Banning Consequences

When bad government policies create problems, government officials often pretend that the causes are unrelated to the effects. Instead they enact further bad policies. They may even seek to outlaw the effects, as if prohibiting puddles could stop the rain.

Suppose a government greatly expands the money supply, which leads to a general rise in prices obvious enough to cause people to complain about sticker shock. Governments may try to “solve” the problem with slogans and price controls.

In Argentina, which is lurching toward 30 percent inflation, they’re skipping the Whip Inflation Now buttons and going straight to the price controls. The government has temporarily frozen prices in the largest supermarkets. The two-​month freeze is the result of an “agreement” between the trade group representing big stores and the Argentine government.

Now what happens?

Well, customers will race to the big stores, but small stores won’t lose business except in the short run. As the inflated demand outstrips a deflating stock of goods, the big stores and their suppliers won’t see much point in replacing goods that they can sell only unprofitably or at a loss. If they do replace the sold-​off stock, they’ll likely do so with shoddier stuff in smaller packages.

Monetary inflation imposes hardship; price controls worsen the hardship. By the same logic, you help somebody whose leg you just broke by smashing his other leg too. You may think that this procedure would restore health, but actually — no.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

Note on the illustration: The French assignat was an early instance of paper money inflation in Europe.

Categories
national politics & policies too much government

Default by a Thousand Cuts

Alan Greenspan half-​smilingly argues that U.S. Treasury bonds will never be defaulted because “we can always print money.” How reassuring. 

It’s one thing to pull money out of the proverbial magic cookie jar and place it in bank ledgers (“high-​powered money,” or QE1, QE2) while people are substituting consumption with saving, fearful of the near-​term prospects (increasing their “demand for money”). It’s quite another to do that while people expect prices only to rise. Massive increase in the supply of money (“printing money”) while people anticipate inflation (lowered “demand for money”) can lead to runaway inflation, hyperinflation.

America hasn’t experienced that since the Civil War. But Germany has (after World War I), as has Zimbabwe (just recently). It can ruin a whole way of life.

After Germany’s hyperinflation, Nazism arose. 

Greenspan may have been trying to make a subtle point, but the blunt point remains: Default is likely, for inflation itself serves as a form of default. Under Greenspan’s scenario, the Federal Reserve, conspiring with Treasury, would, by “simply” printing money, pay debt with decreased-​value dollars. 

The ancient Chinese had a perverse form of torturous execution: Death by a thousand cuts. Inflation is like that, it’s torture for almost everyone, default by a … gazillion devaluations.

The only way around this is to make very different cuts — in federal spending.

That’s not torture, that’s the road to recovery. 

It’s unlikely, of course, because, to politicians and insiders, cutting spending seems like torture.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

Categories
free trade & free markets insider corruption national politics & policies

The Clipping and Culling Crisis

I just came across a paper on an old bout of hyperinflation — the “Kipper- und Wipperzeit” financial crisis in 17th century Germany — worth studying, considering that today’s smart money is on the radical debasement of today’s already-​undermined dollar.

The Kipper- und Wipperzeit hyperinflation started out as a government program to bilk the people of wealth, but got out of hand. It became a free-for-all. 

Back before credit money and fiat money, governments made special deals with miners and minters and the like, to coin money to spec. Those insiders put less metal into the coins than before, but called the coins the same. Debasement, pure and simple: Theft — fraud, to be exact. 

It helped make a few major fortunes, fund some wars and the like.

But apparently moneylenders caught on, and began “clipping” the coins. Minters employed subcontractors to look for better-​quality coins in circulation, paying for them in clipped coins. Soon everyone was clipping coins, and then culling them (hence the term “Kipper- und Wipperzeit” — “clipping and culling time”) to hoard the highest-​value coins (with the most metal) and pawn off into the general circulation the lowest-​value coins (with the least). Gresham’s Law in action led to spiraling prices and the breakdown of trade.

A great example of calculated, “clever” government policy spilling into the general population, leading first to rampant moral corruption and then ruin.

Something to remember, as clever folks contemplate “monetizing” today’s sovereign debt.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.