Tag: moral hazard

Old Woke, Not New

SVB, Silicon Valley Bank, interest rates, collapse, FED

Last week’s collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank gets more interesting with each revelation. But one of them is probably not that it was “woke.”

Contrary to rumor, I see no real evidence that SVB gave millions to Black Lives Matter. The bank did pledge $50 million towards an internal program dubbed “Access to Innovation.” This, we are told, “sought to connect women, Black people, and Latinos with startup funding, networking, and leadership development in the venture capitalist ecosystem.”

Sounds great in a press release, though what it has to do with making profits is a bit hard to determine.

Very feel-good, not very bottom-line.

And that’s where the bank failed, on the bottom line.

Its clientele was concentrated in one industry, which has been hit by rising interest rates. Thus stressed, it was exceptionally prone to “bank run” pressures. Its core asset class was long-term Treasury Bonds, whose value decreased with rising interest rates — and these were not hedged.

As Forbes put it, “Whether it was fully or semi-deliberate, Silicon Valley Bank was betting heavily on interest rates not rising.”

An extremely bad bet.

But you can see why the bankers would make it, right? Why wouldn’t they expect the giveaway mentality of Zero Interest Rates Forever?

Their hopes dashed, they nevertheless turned to their friends … in power. The Biden Administration that failed to keep interest rates down then pledged to cover SVB’s clients — the super-rich corporations that true progressive Democrats pretend to hate for all their “profits” and “under-taxed” income — well above the FDIC-insured levels.*

We may learn real data about the banks’ wokeness levels, rather than mere rumor, but the bedrock truth reveals itself as all-too-familiar: it’s all about monetary policy.

That is, the “woke” ideas of a century ago, when the Progressives’ beloved Federal Reserve was created.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

* Like Signature Bank, which was closed on Sunday, the overwhelming bulk of SVB’s deposits were uninsured by FDIC.

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Tags banking, bankruptcy, interest rates, moral hazard

free trade & free markets moral hazard

Is It Still Capitalism?

capitalism, mixed economy, socialism, corporation, bank

Is it still capitalism if the capital is guaranteed?

“The U.S. government will guarantee all customer funds in Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) after a series of bad decisions and a run on deposits led to the bank’s collapse,” explains Elizabeth Nolan Brown in Reason.

Technically, the bank isn’t being bailed out. Its customers are. And that’s a lot more popular than bailing out banks directly. There are more bank customers who vote than bankers who vote — though there is probably more political donations from banks directly seeking banking policy “correctives” than bank customers doing the same. That’s almost apodictically true.

The most bizarre element? While the FDIC, the federal agency that insures depositors of this and similar banks, is designed to guarantee depositors’ capital up to a certain limited amount ($250,000, more or less), the regulatory triumvirate of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, and FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg declare that “all depositors of this institution will be made whole.”

All.

Even the super-rich.

The key concept, here, is moral hazard — “The decision creates bad incentives for financial institutions and their customers” is how Ms. Brown puts it. We’ve been through all of this before. Is there really any question? The answers are in.

So, to the opening, Is it still capitalism if the capital is guaranteed? — if even Prince Harry’s fortune will be guaranteed — the answer is No.

Sorta.

It’s a special kind of capitalism. State-dominated capitalism; Neo-mercantilism; f***-ism. Use whichever term.

As we contemplate a profit-and-loss system without loss, and how the losses will be made up within the financial system, just remember that the federal government playing the role of Savior is not itself costless, and … its debt keeps growing. And the Ultimate Result of all this still looms.

Immoral hazard.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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Tags bailouts, capitalism, moral hazard, risk, socialism

folly free trade & free markets moral hazard nannyism national politics & policies responsibility

Auto Destruct

car, automobile, auto, loan, bubble, illustration

Just when you thought it safe to go back into the loan market.…

Yes, you guessed it: a bubble may be about to pop.

There are actually several, but here’s one you might not expect: the automobile loan market.

Though less regulated and tampered with than the housing market, auto loans aren’t immune to “moral hazard” and other government-induced dangers. The Fed’s low interest rates are almost certainly stimulating the new car market. “Subprime” car loans are way up and so are delinquencies. Do the bankers making these decreasingly solvent loans expect a bailout?

As Eric Peters notes at his immensely fascinating automobile website, the average car loan is now $32,000, “a record high.” And then there’s the “ever-increasing duration of new cars loans. They are now on average six years long — and seven year loans are becoming pretty common.”

Why? “In order to spread out payments (now averaging almost $500 a month) that have become simply too much to manage for most people.”

But then of course car prices are rising. And not just because of simple inflation. It’s the result of government regulations, mandates, and … general craziness. Many buyers now finance used car purchases, too, as Mr. Peters explains. That used to be fairly uncommon. The used-car market has been unduly affected by government insanity as well. Remember Cash for Clunkers? Politicians boasted about their managed destruction of millions of used autos.

What they really achieved was a tighter-than-ever supply of usable older cars.

Cruising toward the auto-destruct of the auto-loan markets.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

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