“Why is Taiwan such a hot flash point?”
That’s what U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) asked Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. “Why could it lead not only to a catastrophic war, but also global Great Depression? Why should Americans care about an island on the other side of the world?”
The admiral told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the senator’s “last point [was] quite salient. Many a research organization postulate that conflict in the western Pacific over the Taiwan question would result in a 25 percent GDP contraction in Asia and a knock-on effect of 10 to 12 percent GDP reduction in the United States of America, with unemployment spiking seven to 10 points above base and likely 500,000 excess deaths of despair above base as well.
“This is just the importance of the regional stability to the world economy and its effect on people’s lives,” added Paparo. “And this is a function of freedom of navigation; it’s a function of the world dependency on semiconductors.”
“And to be clear,” offered Sen. Cotton, “simply having the conflict over Taiwan which is such a center of gravity in the modern economy could lead to many of the consequences you just outlined.”
Paparo explained that “most of the things” he has “studied indicate that American intervention would halve that impact,” adding “a successful American intervention would.
“Still a grave result,” Admiral Paparo acknowledged, “but half as grave, with savings of a lot of human misery.”
Let’s hope and pray and prepare militarily to deter Chinese aggression.
This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.
Illustration created with Krea and Firefly
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3 replies on “To Halve and Halve Not”
You lost me at “Tom Cotton.” Like his fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton, you know he’s lying whenever you see his lips moving.
“…it’s a function of the world dependency on semiconductors.”
This is what globalization gets you. Taiwan is a major producer of semiconductors, needed for advanced electronics. An unexpected event in that area can wreak havoc everywhere . What we need are backup sources of supply. A natural disaster could have the same effect as a war or naval blockade. The greatest military in the world can’t prevent an earthquake or flood or volcanic eruption from disrupting global supply chains.
“Trump has repeatedly criticized the bipartisan Chips Act, signed by then president Joe Biden in August 2022. Earlier in March he said US lawmakers should get rid of it and instead use the proceeds to pay debt.”
That is what you get when you elect an imbecile!