On Thursday, a provocative post from X user @CremieuxRecueil included a graph showing U.S. federal workforce numbers declining from a peak of around 3.05 million in late 2024 to below 2.75 million by late 2025, with the drop accelerating after Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
Elon Musk replied to it on the 19th, with “The matrix was reprogrammed,” amplifying its reach.
Musk’s somewhat cryptic comment seems to attribute the decline to DOGE — the Department of Government Efficiency, an advisory body led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, which focused on reducing federal spending and bureaucracy through recommendations like hiring freezes, agency reorganizations, and mass layoffs.
Is there any truth to it? Did DOGE do something substantive?
Based on official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and reporting from government oversight sources, yes. This precipitous downward slope on the graph represents the largest peacetime reduction in federal employment on record, totaling over 270,000 jobs cut since January 2025.
That is roughly a 9 percent drop from peak levels.
Still, critics note it hasn’t yet translated to significant budget savings.
DOGE’s role does receive credit in many accounts, as its recommendations influenced executive actions like Trump’s Day One hiring freeze (with exceptions for essential roles) and agency-specific layoffs. But remember, DOGE itself is an unofficial advisory panel without direct authority — its charter expires in mid-2026, and since Elon left, it has not been quite as active as at its peak.
Federal employment had grown from about 2.85 million in 2021 to over three million by 2024 under the Biden administration, driven by hiring in areas like healthcare, infrastructure, and regulatory enforcement. The reversal in 2025 aligns with Trump’s executive orders and DOGE proposals to eliminate redundancies and non-essential positions.
As of mid-2025, over 58,500 confirmed layoffs, 76,000 voluntary buyouts, and 149,000 planned reductions were tracked across 27 agencies, including significant cuts at the IRS, EPA, and Department of Education.
While not a formal department, DOGE’s public campaigns and embedded “team leads” in agencies have driven reorganizations, such as consolidating offices and purging unprotected roles.
Cato Institute hailed it as effective for workforce reduction, but outlets like The Washington Times pointed out that federal spending hasn’t decreased accordingly, calling the savings goal of $2 trillion “unmet.”
Why “unmet”? Well, factors like entitlement programs and debt servicing aren’t just going to go away of themselves, and DOGE limited itself to “waste-fraud-abuse” elements in the Social Security system.
References:
- BLS CES Highlights for November 2025 (PDF): Direct monthly data on government employment drops.
- Cato Institute Analysis (December 18, 2025): Details the 9% decline and historical context.
- Fortune (December 16, 2025): Covers the October/November drops tied to DOGE.
- New York Post Opinion (December 19, 2025): Discusses cumulative 270,000+ reduction.
- Reuters Exclusive (November 24, 2025): Explains hiring freeze and DOGE’s advisory role.
- “2025 Federal Mass Layoffs” (Wikipedia): Tracks confirmed and planned cuts.
- “How the DOGE Do,” Common Sense FYI (February 15, 2025): Covers the way of DOGE’s creation.
- “Elon’s Out,” Common Sense by Paul Jacob (May 30, 2025): The politics of DOGE’s transition to its latter days.